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Empirical Evaluation of Law: The Dream and the Nightmare

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  • John J. Donohue

Abstract

I discuss the empirical revolution in law and economics, and use the analysis of the deterrent impact of the death penalty to chart the tremendous advances in estimating causal effects since the mid-1970s. This story highlights how ostensibly sophisticated studies frequently generate incorrect estimates, and how difficult it is to know what studies should be believed—a difficulty open to being exploited by those (the media, think tanks, and others) who seek to promote clearly weak studies for some private agenda. I offer a hierarchy of methodologies to assist in evaluating empirical studies and some suggestions for promoting the search for truth.

Suggested Citation

  • John J. Donohue, 2015. "Empirical Evaluation of Law: The Dream and the Nightmare," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 313-360.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:amlawe:v:17:y:2015:i:2:p:313-360.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aler/ahv007
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Costeira Machado & Cristiano Aguiar De Oliveira, 2018. "The Deterrent Effects Of Brazillian Child Labor Law," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 237, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Chin, Jason & Zeiler, Kathryn, 2021. "Replicability in Empirical Legal Research," LawArXiv 2b5k4, Center for Open Science.

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