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No News Is Good News: Stochastic Parameters versus Media Coverage Indices in Demand Models after Food Scares

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  • Mario Mazzocchi

Abstract

We develop a stochastic parameter approach to model the time-varying impacts of food scares on consumption, as an alternative to the inclusion of news coverage indices in the demand function. We empirically test the methodology on data from four food scares, the 1982 heptachlor milk contamination in Oahu, Hawaii and the bovine spongiform encephalopathy and two Escherichia coli scares on U.S. meat demand over the period 1993–9. Results show that the inclusion of time-varying parameters in demand models enables the capturing of the impact of food safety information and provides better short-term forecasts. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Mazzocchi, 2006. "No News Is Good News: Stochastic Parameters versus Media Coverage Indices in Demand Models after Food Scares," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 727-741.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:88:y:2006:i:3:p:727-741
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mu, Jianhong E. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Bessler, David A., 2013. "Impacts of BSE and Avian Influenza on U.S. Meat Demand," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150392, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Rieger, Jorg & Kuhlgatz, Christian, 2015. "Analyzing Consumer Demand During a Food Scandal: The Case of Dioxin Contaminated Feed in Germany and the Media," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212292, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Rieger, Jörg & Weible, Daniela, 2016. "Analyse Der Nachfragereaktionen Auf Den Dioxinskandal: Sind Die Medien Oder Letztendlich Konsumgewohnheiten Entscheidend?," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244777, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Kim, Jae H. & Fraser, Iain & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "Improved interval estimation of long run response from a dynamic linear model: A highest density region approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 2477-2489, August.
    5. Edgardo Ayala & Joana Chapa, 2017. "AH1N1 impact on the Mexican pork meat market," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 32(1), pages 3-25.
    6. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:892-:d:137164 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Taylor, Mykel & Klaiber, H. Allen & Kuchler, Fred, 2016. "Changes in U.S. consumer response to food safety recalls in the shadow of a BSE scare," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 56-64.
    8. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Food scare crises and price volatility: The case of the BSE in Spain," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-185, April.
    9. Alexander E. Saak, 2012. "Collective Reputation, Social Norms, and Participation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 763-785.
    10. repec:eee:jfpoli:v:69:y:2017:i:c:p:145-153 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hassouneh, Islam & Radwan, Amr & Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Food scare crises and developing countries: The impact of avian influenza on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 264-274.
    12. Beach, Robert H. & Zhen, Chen, 2008. "Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Response to Media Coverage of Avian Influenza," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6750, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Islam Hassouneh & Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2010. "Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 33-42, January.
    14. Radwan, Amr & Gil, Jose Maria & Ben Kaabia, Monia & Serra, Teresa, 2008. "Modeling The Impact Of Food Safety Information On Meat Demand In Spain," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6672, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Timothy J. Richards & William Nganje, 2014. "Welfare Effects of Food Safety Recalls," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(1), pages 107-124, March.
    16. Mu, Jianhong H. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2010. "Does Negative Information Always Hurt Meat Demand? An Examination of Avian Influenza Information Impacts on U.S," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116450, European Association of Agricultural Economists;Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Radwan, Amr & Gil, Jose Maria & Ben Kaabia, Monia & Serra, Teresa, 2009. "Food Safety Information And Meat Demand In Spain," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51540, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Rieger, Jörg & Kuhlgatz, Christian & Anders, Sven, 2016. "Food scandals, media attention and habit persistence among desensitised meat consumers," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-92.
    19. repec:eee:ijrema:v:25:y:2008:i:4:p:310-318 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Heiman, Amir, 2015. "Positioning GM Food Product : Benefits, risk and loss aversion considerations," GMCC-15: Seventh GMCC, November 17-20, 2015, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 211475, International Conference on Coexistence between Genetically Modified (GM) and non-GM based Agricultural Supply Chains (GMCC).
    21. Mutondo, Joao E. & Henneberry, Shida Rastegari, 2007. "A Source-Differentiated Analysis of U.S. Meat Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December.

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