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Causal Relationships between Public Sector Agricultural Research Expenditures and Output

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  • Philip G. Pardey
  • Barbara Craig

Abstract

Allocative decisions concerning public sector agricultural research appear to be driven by both supply and politically mediated demand forces. In-sample Granger tests, along with post-sample predictive tests, suggest that simultaneity issues should not be ignored when modeling the research expenditure-output relationship. The results also provide strong evidence that the impact of research expenditures on agricultural output may persist for as long as thirty years. These lags are substantially longer than those commonly used for agricultural research to date. The lagged effect of output on research appears to be shorter, though still between ten and twelve years.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip G. Pardey & Barbara Craig, 1989. "Causal Relationships between Public Sector Agricultural Research Expenditures and Output," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(1), pages 9-19.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:71:y:1989:i:1:p:9-19.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1241770
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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Plastina & Lilyan Fulginiti, 2012. "Rates of return to public agricultural research in 48 US states," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 95-113, April.
    2. Pedro Andres Garzon Delvaux & Heinrich Hockmann & Peter Voigt & Pavel Ciaian & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2018. "The impact of private R&D on the performance of food-processing firms: Evidence from Europe, Japan and North America," JRC Working Papers JRC104144, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    3. Rajeswari S., 1995. "Agricultural research effort: Conceptual clarity and measurement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 617-635, April.
    4. Cox, Thomas L. & Mullen, John D. & Hu, Wensheng, 1996. "Nonparametric Measures Of The Impacts Of Public Research Expenditures On Australian Broadacre Agriculture: Preliminary Results," Staff Papers 12656, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    5. Fuglie, Keith & Ballenger, Nicole & Rubenstein, Kelly Day & Klotz, Cassandra & Ollinger, Michael & Reilly, John & Vasavada, Utpal & Yee, Jet, 1996. "Agricultural Research and Development: Public and Private Investments Under Alternative Markets and Institutions," Agricultural Economics Reports 262031, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Julian M Alston, 2018. "Reflections on Agricultural R&D, Productivity, and the Data Constraint: Unfinished Business, Unsettled Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(2), pages 392-413.
    7. Rahmatullah, A. B. Md. & Kuroda, Yoshimi, 2005. "Causality between Capital Investment and Productivity in Japanese Agriculture, 1957-97," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 7, pages 1-10.
    8. Michael Harris & Alan Lloyd, 1991. "The Returns to Agricultural Research and the Underinvestment Hypothesis ‐ A Survey," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 16-27, July.
    9. Arega D. Alene, 2010. "Productivity growth and the effects of R&D in African agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(3‐4), pages 223-238, May.
    10. Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M. & Ruttan, Vernon W., 2010. "The Economics of Innovation and Technical Change in Agriculture," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 939-984, Elsevier.
    11. Chatterjee, Diti & Dinar, Ariel & González-Rivera, Gloria, 2018. "An empirical knowledge production function of agricultural research and extension: The case of the University of California Cooperative Extension," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 290-297.
    12. Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2001. "Attribution and other problems in assessing the returns to agricultural R&D," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 141-152, September.
    13. D. Schimmelpfennig & C. Thirtle, 1994. "Cointegration, And Causality: Exploring The Relationship Between Agricultural And Productivity," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 220-231, May.
    14. de Villiers, J. & Blignaut, C. S., 1990. "DOELTREFFENDHEID IN DIE LANDBOU: 'n LANDBOUBELEIDSIENING," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 29(4), December.
    15. Guisan, M.Carmen & Exposito, Pilar, 2002. "Econometric Models of Agriculture in OECD Countries: Production, Income, and Agrarian Employment in Spain, France, Japan, and the Usa, 1965-99," Economic Development 60, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

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