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Quarterly Models to Predict Cash Prices of Pork Bellies

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  • Richard J. Foote
  • John A. Craven
  • Robert R. Williams

Abstract

Quarterly three-equation models designed to predict wholesale cash prices for fresh pork bellies at Chicago, quarterly consumption, and end-of-quarter stocks were developed and fitted by three-stage least squares based on data for 1957–1971. This is the first published econometric study relating to this highly volatile commodity. The major methodological contribution is a demand-for-storage equation that combines a Nerlove-type price expectations adjustment formulation with expectations on the supply side based on data published in the USDA quarterly Hogs and Pigs. Useful forecasts of both cash prices and futures quotations were given through the first half of 1972.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Foote & John A. Craven & Robert R. Williams, 1972. "Quarterly Models to Predict Cash Prices of Pork Bellies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(4_Part_1), pages 603-610.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:54:y:1972:i:4_part_1:p:603-610.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1238536
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    Cited by:

    1. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Semprevio, Ralph R. & Capps, Oral Jr., 1981. "Detection And Treatment Of Multicollinearity In Simultaneous Systems Of Equations," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279383, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Foote, Richard J., 1977. "Discussion of George G. Judge's Estimation and Statistical Inference in Economics," A Survey of Agricultural Economics Literature, Volume 2: Quantitative Methods in Agricultural Economics, 1940s to 1970s,, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Judge, George G. & Foote, Richard J., 1977. "PART I. Estimation and Statistical Inference in Economics," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337221, january.

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