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An Analysis of Daily Fluctuations in the Hog Economy

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  • Raymond M. Leuthold

Abstract

A recursive model is developed to identify and evaluate the major factors affecting daily fluctuations in hog prices and quantities supplied. Using two years of data, packer price bids for slaughter hogs are found to depend upon lagged wholesale prices, present and lagged quantities of hogs marketed, and the day of the week. Producer's daily marketing responses depend upon lagged price, day of the week, and season of the year. Elasticity of supply is very high, ranging from 8 to 10. Daily ex post forecasts of price and quantity supplied are made for a one year period and indicate that variations in the regression coefficients from month to month, resulting from updating of the model, provide virtually no improvement of the forecasts over using an initial set of coefficients. The developed model predicts daily price fluctuations more accurately than a naive model tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond M. Leuthold, 1969. "An Analysis of Daily Fluctuations in the Hog Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 849-865.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:51:y:1969:i:4:p:849-865.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1237778
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomek, William G. & Robinson, Kenneth L., 1977. "PART V. Agricultural Price Analysis and Outlook," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337217, january.
    2. Brian C. Briggeman & Christopher Zakrzewicz, 2009. "Can the Ag Credit Survey predict national credit conditions?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q IV), pages 93-110.

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