Gash-Futures Price Relationships for Live Beef Cattle

The objectives of this study, all pertaining to pricing efficiency, were: (1) to develop a theory of cash-futures price relationships for beef cattle; (2) to measure the factors that have affected cash-futures price relationships during the three years of trade in live-beef-cattle futures; and (3) to provide a framework for evaluating the efficiency of futures markets and hedging in the pricing of feeder cattle. Three types of evidence are employed to attain these objectives. First, the principles of cash-futures price behavior derived from observation of long-established futures markets serve as points of departure, while consideration is given to certain fundamental differences that arise from contrasting commodity characteristics. Second, empirical results relating to supply and demand for feeder cattle are employed to define expected relationships between futures prices and prices of feeder cattle of various weights. Third, data generated by the beef cattle futures market itself are analyzed, although it is recognized that these data cover only a short time period and are therefore of limited usefulness.