Shocks, the Crisis and Uncertainty about Future Inflation: Theory and Evidence for the Euro Area
This study is motivated by the recent increase in volatility of both inflation and inflation expectations, triggered initially by the surge in commodity prices and more recently by the global economic crisis. While inflation uncertainty rose only moderately in response to the commodity and energy price shock in 2007, the financial and economic crisis triggered a dramatic increase across all types of agents, which was also reflected in historically large forecast errors. During the final months of 2009, both inflation expectations and uncertainty returned to more moderate levels. Uncertainty about future inflation may pose a problem both for monetary policy and for economic efficiency at large. Our study shows that various strands of economic theory offer quite diverse explanations for the mechanisms behind the formation of inflation expectations and the associated uncertainty. Our econometric estimates suggest that behavioral heuristics and information constraints or bounded rationality may indeed influence agents’ uncertainty about future inflation. For instance, both consumers and professional forecasters seem to invest more effort in forming expectations about future inflation if and when inflation developments become more salient. However, in the case of consumers faced with very large inflation shocks, this effect seems to be dampened by other behaviors. In contrast to consumers, professional forecasters’ uncertainty about future inflation reacts to news about the business cycle and monetary policy, which points to their use of a richer data set and more sophisticated models in forming inflation expectations.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2010:i:1:b:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudia Kwapil)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.