IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oec/stdkaa/5kzpq2xb9rg7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Economic Sentiment Indicator: Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Antoinette Silgoner

Abstract

This paper assesses the leading indicator properties of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) of the European Commission, as well as two of its subcomponents, for industrial production growth. For this purpose we perform correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, an assessment on the ability to predict turning points and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Within a panel setting we compare the characteristics of these indicators for two subgroups of EU countries: the EU-15 and the new EU member states. We show that the forecasting quality and the leading indicator properties are still slightly lagging behind in the group of new EU member states. This may be related to the general problem of data quality and the undergone history of structural change in these countries that makes the assessment of future economic prospects particularly difficult.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2008. "The Economic Sentiment Indicator: Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(2), pages 199-215.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5kzpq2xb9rg7
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art11-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art11-en
    Download Restriction: Full text available to READ online. PDF download available to OECD iLibrary subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art11-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lindner, Axel & Heinisch, Katja, 2019. "Economic Sentiment in Europe: Disentangling Private Information from Public Knowledge," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203501, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5kzpq2xb9rg7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oecddfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.