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Analysis Of The Cross-Country Predictability Via The Study Of Cointegration: The Case Of Six Asian Emerging Markets

Author

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  • Latifa Fatnassi
  • Ezzeddine Abaoub

    (Faculty of Economics and Management of Tunis, Tunisia
    Faculty of Economics and Management of Tunis, Tunisia)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the stock returns predictability in a multi-variate context. Johansen’s multivariate cointegration analysis is applied to weekly data on the Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia and Singapore indices in 1997-2008. The results indicate that markets are cointegrated when prices are expressed in local currencies whereas no cointegration was found for prices in terms of Euro. This result implies the impossibility to diversify internationally in these markets when the index prices where expressed in local currencies. In both case, there is significant cross-country predictability, i.e. the forecast of future returns on one market can be improved by including past returns from other markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Latifa Fatnassi & Ezzeddine Abaoub, 2012. "Analysis Of The Cross-Country Predictability Via The Study Of Cointegration: The Case Of Six Asian Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 1(4), pages 376-387.
  • Handle: RePEc:ods:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:4:p:376-387
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    Cited by:

    1. Mihir Dash, 2017. "A Study of Granger Causality in Latin American Stock Markets," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 6(2), pages 82-88, May.
    2. Adel Shakeeb Mohsen, 2015. "Effects of Trade Openness And Economic Growth on the Private Sector Investment in Syria," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 4(3), pages 168-176.
    3. Mihir Dash, 2015. "A Study of Granger Causality in Asian Stock Markets," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 4(3), pages 145-150.
    4. T. Mohanasundaram & P. Karthikeyan, 2017. "Decisive Economic and Stock Market Indicators on Foreign Institutional Investments: Evidence from India," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 6(1), pages 43-57, February.

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