IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nye/nyervw/v44y2013i1p3-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study

Author

Listed:
  • Arindam Mandal
  • Joseph McCollum

Abstract

This paper explores the short-term and long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and the consumer confidence index in five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of New York State. The paper utilizes a unique dataset collected by the Siena Research Institute (SRI) between 2001 and 2010. We use panel cointegration and panel error-correction models (ECM) to explore the causal relationship between these two variables. The short-run coefficients indicate a negative causality from consumer sentiment to unemployment and vice versa, indicating that unemployment and consumer sentiment reinforce each other in the short run. In the long-run, we find significant negative causality from consumer confidence to unemployment. However, the direction of causality from unemployment to consumer confidence is not significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Arindam Mandal & Joseph McCollum, 2013. "Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 44(1), pages 3-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:nye:nyervw:v:44:y:2013:i:1:p:3-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nyecon.net/nysea/publications/nyer/2013/NYER_2013_p003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.nyecon.net/nysea/publications/nyer/2013/NYER_2013_p003.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kumar, V. & Leone, Robert P. & Gaskins, John N., 1995. "Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 361-377, September.
    2. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    3. De Boef, Suzanna, 2001. "Modeling Equilibrium Relationships: Error Correction Models with Strongly Autoregressive Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 78-94, January.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    7. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Albert Solé-Ollé & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, "undated". "Cities as engines of regional growth," Studies on the Spanish Economy 145, FEDEA.
    4. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2016. "Do population age groups matter in the energy use of the oil-exporting countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 82-99.
    5. Naszódi, Anna & Krekó, Judit & Horváth, Csilla, 2005. "Kamatátgyűrűzés Magyarországon [Interest rate pass-through in Hungary (1997-2004)]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 356-376.
    6. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    7. Bilal Mehmood & Syed Hassan Raza & Mahwish Rana & Huma Sohaib & Muhammad Azhar Khan, 2014. "Triangular Relationship between Energy Consumption, Price Index and National Income in Asian Countries: A Pooled Mean Group Approach in Presence of Structural Breaks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 610-620.
    8. Ranjan Aneja & Umer J. Banday & Tanzeem Hasnat & Mustafa Koçoglu, 2017. "Renewable and Non-renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Panel Error Correction Model," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(1), pages 76-85, June.
    9. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    12. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    13. Muntasir Murshed & Seemran Rashid, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Responses to Foreign Currency Inflows: Revisiting the Dutch Disease Phenomenon in South Asia," The Economics and Finance Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 7(1), pages 23-46.
    14. Dong, Kangyin & Sun, Renjin & Li, Hui & Liao, Hua, 2018. "Does natural gas consumption mitigate CO2 emissions: Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for 14 Asia-Pacific countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 419-429.
    15. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2011. "The renewable energy consumption-growth nexus in Central America," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 343-347, January.
    16. Nicoleta Mihaela Florea & Roxana Maria Bădîrcea & Ramona Costina Pîrvu & Alina Georgiana Manta & Marius Dalian Doran & Elena Jianu, 2020. "The impact of agriculture and renewable energy on climate change in Central and East European Countries," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(10), pages 444-457.
    17. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 859-873.
    18. Chakraborty, Chandana & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2006. "Economic reforms, foreign direct investment and its economic effects in India," Kiel Working Papers 1272, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Md. Shabbir Alam & Mustafa Raza Rabbani & Mohammad Rumzi Tausif & Joji Abey, 2021. "Banks’ Performance and Economic Growth in India: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, March.
    20. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Christophe Kamps, 2006. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 1960-2001," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 1-6.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nye:nyervw:v:44:y:2013:i:1:p:3-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eryk Wdowiak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nyseaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.