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The Impact of Season Maturity on the Football-Betting Market


  • Ladd Kochman
  • Randy Goodwin


Efficiency in the football-betting market was examined on a month-by-month basis over a 19-year period. Prompted by the mispricing of IPOs in the securities market, we anticipated less-efficient pointspreads in the first month of the National Football League's season (September) than in the three succeeding months. While more wins-to-bets ratios for the 28 NFL teams competing during the 1980-98 seasons were nonrandom in September than in October or November, W/B ratios in December were most conspicuously out-of-line. Possible explanations for a mature market behaving immaturely include an environment in which streaks occur as teams either chase post-season rewards or collapse when no longer contending and the substitution of lesser-known players for injured teammates.

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  • Ladd Kochman & Randy Goodwin, 2000. "The Impact of Season Maturity on the Football-Betting Market," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 31(1), pages 27-31.
  • Handle: RePEc:nye:nyervw:v:31:y:2000:i:1:p:27-31

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-1386, December.
    2. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
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