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The Influence of Income and the Business Cycle on Birth Rates in Bulgaria, 2000-2016


  • Aleksandar Kosuliev

    () (University of University of Ruse, Ruse, Bulgaria)


In the last three decades the population of Bulgaria decreases, which poses a challenge for the country’s economic development. It is possible that the opposite relation – from economic to demographic processes – also exists. Our analysis show that in Bulgaria income and the business cycle on one hand and the birth rate, on the other, are correlated for the period 2000-2016. Regardless of the initial income level, birth rate falls when the economy is in a crisis and it goes up when the economy recovers. However long-term increase in the birth rate as a reaction to long-term growth is questionable, as total birth rate remains unchanged. Instead, increases in the income level shift the birth rate from lower to higher age groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Kosuliev, 2019. "The Influence of Income and the Business Cycle on Birth Rates in Bulgaria, 2000-2016," Nauchni trudove, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 5, pages 27-39, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nwe:natrud:y:2019:i:5:p:27-39

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    business cycle; birth rate; income; Bulgaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics


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