The Challenges of Deep-Sea Mineral Extraction: Analysis of Benefits and Risks through the Lens of Realism

The article analyzes the challenges of deep-sea mineral extraction (DME) through the lens of offensive realism, describing it as a new field for geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. This extraction is motivated by the acute need for critical minerals (cobalt, nickel, copper) for the low-carbon transition and new technologies. China’s significant control over the overland extraction of rare earth minerals has motivated the US to look for an alternative in the extraction of similar minerals from the world’s oceans. They are taking advantage of the failure of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) to create an international regulation on DDM to embark on a kind of “gold rush†for the riches of the seabed, not limited by any international legal norms. If the geo-economic benefits of reducing dependence on China with critical raw materials are indisputable, the article also draws attention to the significant risks: exacerbation of geopolitical tensions (with the potential for military escalation) and, most importantly, risks of irreversible ecological catastrophe for fragile deep-sea ecosystems. These risks pose the question of whether the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the US and China will not lead to irreversible damage to the world ocean, which is one of the last corners of the Earth that destructive human activity has had little effect on.