Sector-Industrial Crisis Instability and Resumption of Growth in the Bulgarian Economy

The presented study reveals the main sectoral and industrial sources of crisis tension in Bulgaria in 2009 and of weak or moderate, but unstable growth in the period until 2016. They are codified on the basis of the specific expression of a selected set of criteria. For this purpose, a combined indicator-logic approach is applied, with an emphasis on indicators related to some leading and coincidental indicators of the crisis and cyclicality in the economy. Corresponding emerging crisis (in)stability is identified on the basis of three concrete indicators (criteria) – the time (year) of occurrence, the depth and duration of the registered decline/growth in production in the individual economic spheres and sectors. Statistical data on an annual basis for the rate of change of GDP by economic sectors and groups, for the size by sectors of the expenses incurred for acquisition of tangible fixed assets, etc. are used. As a result of the analysis, these leading spheres and branches are emerging which are the epicenter of the crisis, and the subsequent relatively low rates of economic growth. In order to stabilize their development in the near future, a set of basic measures and policies, on which the government’s efforts can focus, are systematized.