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Dating and Forecasting Bulgaria's Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Todorov

    (SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY, Bulgaria)

  • Aleksandar Aleksandrov

    (SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY, Bulgaria)

Abstract

The goal of this article is to date Bulgaria’s business cycle and create a model for forecasting it. The objects of the article are the determinants of Bulgaria’s business cycle phases from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2016. The subject of the study is the influence of the interest spread, oil prices, building permits, the stock market index Sofix, the confidence in industrial sector and the GDP of the euro area countries on business cycle phases. The methodology logistic regression of time series has been used. All variables have a significant impact on business cycle phases and the direction of impact corresponds to theoretical expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Todorov & Aleksandar Aleksandrov, 2018. "Dating and Forecasting Bulgaria's Business Cycle," Ikonomiceski i Sotsialni Alternativi, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 31-42, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwe:iisabg:y:2018:i:2:p:31-42
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; dating; forecasting; logistic regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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