World Merchandise Trade

This article is mainly based on the most recent statistical data of the World Trade Organization and some aspects related to the evolution of world merchandise trade, in terms of volume and value, in 2015. The volume of world merchandise trade continued to grow slowly in 2015 while the dollar value of it declined sharply as exports fell 14 per cent to US$ 16 trillion, down from US$ 19 trillion in the previous year. It presents also the contribution of the volume change and of the change in unit values (which account for fluctuations in prices and exchange rates) to the value trade growth (in current dollar terms). The discrepancy between trade growth in 2015 in terms of volume and value was mostly attributable to swings in commodity prices and exchange rates The course of economic globalization is also shortly looked on based on some data and considerations of Credit Suisse analysts. Three different scenarios were taken into account in this respect. First one in which globalization continues in the form we know it over the past thirty years, second one in which a multipolar world is a better representation of the state of affairs and third, a scenario in which globalization ends due to the rise of anti-globalization political movements. The second scenario seems to provide a better reflection of reality today, despite the fact that a certain slowdown is observable when taking into account the diminishing growth rate of physical trade, the slower penetration of foreign assets of the developed market companies and signs of reshoring of some business back home. Globalization remains intact in terms of consumption and marketing patterns, while companies seem more reluctant to invest abroad.