National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Spring 2025

Global GDP growth last year, estimated at 3.2 per cent, was almost exactly the same as in 2023. In advanced economies, the effect of previous tighter monetary policies in response to the inflationary surge contributed to the modest pace of growth. In emerging economies, there was a more mixed pattern but little sign of increased dynamism in the year. The monthly economic activity indicators for the final quarter of 2024 point to the global economy growing at a similar pace to the previous quarter. Manufacturing activity has continued to be the weak sector globally, most notably within the Euro Area, with no convincing sign of a return to sustained growth yet. In the G7 economies, there has been a marked difference in GDP growth performance between the United States and the major European economies. In the first three quarters of 2024, annual GDP growth averaged 2.9 per cent in the United States as shown in figure 3, but Euro Area GDP only grew by 0.7 per cent in 2024 according to Eurostat's early estimations. The German economy, in particular, is estimated to have contracted again by 0.2 per cent in 2024.