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Taxa de câmbio e exportações líquidas: uma análise para os estados brasileiros [Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the brazilian states]

Author

Listed:
  • Elano Ferreira Arruda

    (UFC)

  • Gabriel Martins

    (UFC)

Abstract

Este artigo analisa os impactos de curto e de longo prazo das desvalorizações cambiais sobre as exportações líquidas totais, de básicos e de industrializados para um painel de estados brasileiros a partir da aplicação de modelos Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR), para testar a ocorrência do fenômeno da curva J, e do Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (PDOLS), para investigar a validade da condição de Marshall-Lerner. Em todos os modelos considerados a resposta das exportações líquidas dos estados brasileiros a uma depreciação cambial se mostra positiva, validando, portanto, a condição de Marshall-Lerner. Essa resposta é maior para os bens industrializados. Como previsto pela teoria, a renda doméstica apresenta impacto negativo e estatisticamente robusto sobre o saldo comercial, enquanto a renda externa apresenta repercussão positiva. Os resultados indicam a ocorrência da curva J para os totais e os industrializados.

Suggested Citation

  • Elano Ferreira Arruda & Gabriel Martins, 2020. "Taxa de câmbio e exportações líquidas: uma análise para os estados brasileiros [Exchange rate and net exports: An analysis for the brazilian states]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 30(1), pages 111-142, January-A.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:30:y:2020:i:1:p:111-142
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exportações líquidas; curva J; condição de Marshall-Lerner; PVAR; PDOLS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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