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Determination and forecast of agricultural land prices [Determination and forecast of agricultural land prices]

Author

Listed:
  • Bastiaan Philip Reydon

    (IE-UNICAMP)

  • Ludwig Einstein Agurto Plata

    (FATEC)

  • Gerd Sparovek

    (ESALQ/USP)

  • Rafael Guilherme Burstein Goldszmidt

    (EBAPE/FGV)

  • Tiago Santos Telles

    (IAPAR)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to discuss and apply hedonic methodology for the determination and forecast of land prices in specific markets. This is important due to the fact that there is no official or reliable information in Brazil on current prices in land market transactions. This hedonic price methodology uses a multiple regression model which has, as an explanatory variable, the price per hectare and independent variables related to physical attributes (soil, climate and terrain), production (systems of production, location, access), infrastructure of the property and expectations (regional scenario, local investments). Application of the methodology to a Homogeneous Zone of the state of Maranhão, in Brazil, generated a parsimonious model, in which five independent variables were responsible for 70% of the variance in the price of agricultural land.

Suggested Citation

  • Bastiaan Philip Reydon & Ludwig Einstein Agurto Plata & Gerd Sparovek & Rafael Guilherme Burstein Goldszmidt & Tiago Santos Telles, 2014. "Determination and forecast of agricultural land prices [Determination and forecast of agricultural land prices]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 24(2), pages 389-408, May-Augus.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:24:y:2014:i:2:p:389-408
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    land market; hedonic prices; multiple regression analysis; land policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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