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Consolidação fiscal nos Estados brasileiros: uma análise de duração [Fiscal consolidation in Brazilian States: a duration analysis]


  • Bruno de Paula Rocha


  • Fabiana Rocha



The objective of this paper is to analyze the duration of fiscal consolidation of Brazilian states in the period 1986-2001. For this propose, we applied the duration models methodology. We sought to establish the main characteristics that explain the probability that a state would remain in fiscal balance, once it has achieved that position. The non-parametric results suggest that the probability that fiscal consolidation will be maintained falls dramatically after the first year and even more after the second year. Parametric analysis shows that there is a core of relevant variables, such as the Number of Failures, the Personnel Costs/Net Current Revenue ratio, the dummy variable for the years before the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, the dummy variable for the years after the refinance law 9496/97 and the polarization in the preferences of the parties that compose the Legislative Assembly.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno de Paula Rocha & Fabiana Rocha, 2008. "Consolidação fiscal nos Estados brasileiros: uma análise de duração [Fiscal consolidation in Brazilian States: a duration analysis]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 18(2), pages 193-223, May-Augus.
  • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:18:y:2008:i:2:p:193-223

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
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    6. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1999. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from the diverse experiences of India's states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2263, The World Bank.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Roland Bénabou, 1996. "Inequality and Growth," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 11-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
    10. Deininger, Klaus & Olinto, Pedro, 2000. "Asset distribution, inequality, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2375, The World Bank.
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    More about this item


    fiscal consolidation; duration analysis; Brazil;

    JEL classification:

    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies


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