O modelo de liberalização financeira dos anos 1990: 'restatement' ou auto-crítica? [The financial liberalization model in the 1990s: a restatement or self-criticism?]
The paper examines the revisions suffered by the financial liberalization model during the decades of 1980 and1990. Such revisions were forced by two sets of factors: the unfavorable results of some econometric tests of the Shaw-McKinnon model and the experiences of several developed (DC) and developing (LDC) countries with the liberalization policy. In the econometric field, the tests have shown to play a weak explaining role of the two key variables of the model: the real interest rate and the saving rate. As for DC and LDC experiences, the main challenge to the original Shaw-McKinnon model was the banking and currency crises that have followed the liberalization policy in most of the cases. Facing these constraints, the 'modern version' of liberalization has embodied several (Keynesian) critiques to Shaw-McKinnon's financial theory and policy and has been forced to allow for the need of some degree of government intervention in the free choice of financial market concerning its portfolio composition. Further, the new model make a real self-critique, by admitting that, under certain conditions, some degree of financial repression could be necessary and is even beneficial to financial development.
Volume (Year): 13 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (July-December)
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