The Determinants Of The Cyclic Recurrence Of Public Trust In The Non-State Pension Provision

The key cause of the slow development of the non-state pension provision (NPP) in Ukraine is a low level of public trust, which is characterized by unstable dynamics. In the article, an attempt was made to identify the determinants of the non-linear dynamics (cyclic recurrence) of public trust in the NPP system. As a formal measure of trust, the estimate of the pension activity, the absolute (the number of members of private pension funds (NPF)) and relative (the ratio of pension contributions to NPF to the disposable income) indicators were used by the author. An algorithm for the study of the cyclic dynamics of public trust in the NPP and testing the hypotheses about its determinants has been developed. Simultaneously, the study has empirically verified the traditional theories of the saving behavior and the postulates of the neoclassical analysis of the dynamics of savings according to the economic cycle phases in relation to the savings-and-investment behavior of the population of Ukraine in general and the retirement behavior in particular. Hodrick – Prescott filter was used to highlight the long-term trend and the cyclical component of the time series. The following statistical parameters of the cyclic dynamics of time series of the main determinants of public trust in the NPP have been estimated: volatility, persistence and synchronicity of changes. The study has shown that cyclic recurrence of public trust in the NPP depends on the economic cycles, in particular, the real GDP index and the real wage index are coincident indicators of trust, the consumer price index is the leading one. At the same time people's trust in the NPP in relation to the economic cycle (and, correspondingly, the retirement behavior) is a counter-cyclical indicator. The identified nature of the savings-and-investment retirement behavior contradicts the tenets of the neoclassical analysis of the dynamics of savings in the phases of the economic cycle and empirically confirms G. Katona' hypothesis about special understanding of savings by individuals. In addition, the study has found no statistically significant dependence of the dynamics of trust in the NPP and retirement behavior of the population in the phases of the economic cycle on gender and age