An Approach To The Development Of Events Scenarios Based On Fuzzy Modeling

The problem of constructing so-called scenarios has been considered, these scenarios being hypothetical sequences of future actions associated with a particular course of events, depending on a number of poorly defined, difficult to predict indistinct factors and circumstances. These sets of scenarios make it possible to identify causal relationships and key parameters in various decisionmaking situations. Relevant mathematically proved models can be successfully applied in practice. They therefore become important for those who take a variety of industrial, administrative and commercial decisions under uncertainty inherent in today's competitive market environment. Both the main characteristics of the environment, and specific aspects of the problem being solved are considered in the scenarios. A description of the possible future situations and causes of these situations has also been provided. The method of fuzzy modeling has been proposed for this purpose. A conceptual mathematical formulation of the problem and ways to solve it have been offered. As an example, a simulation of the actual task of determining the continued production period and the time of replacement of industrial equipment has been described. A relevant graphic interpretation and ways and directions of analysis of the findings have been presented.