Development of Russian agri-food exports under sanctions: Trends, factors, and prospects

This paper focuses on analyzing the factors which determine the development of Russia’s agricultural exports in the context of structural changes resulting from sanctions and the subsequent shift in trade flows to friendly and neutral countries. This analysis utilizes a structural gravity model that takes into account internal trade flows. The assessment confirmed that the shared border, the BRICS intergovernmental organization, and sanctions, including those combined with the political events that prompted their introduction, have a positive and statistically significant impact on agricultural exports, while trade policies of importing countries are not a key factor. An assessment of the border effect showed that the Russian border reduces the trade flow of agricultural raw materials and food products by 1.99 times, meaning that for Russia, this effect is comparable in scale to other countries, and growing volumes of domestically produced goods are relatively freely redirected from domestic producers to international partners. The paper presents a forecast model, as well as estimates of the development of exports of Russian agricultural products in the future, obtained on its basis.