Closed for different reasons: What does survival analysis of SMEs on big data show?

This paper examines the survival determinants of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Russia, drawing on data covering 5.22 million legal entities that combine the Federal Tax Service’s SME register, the Russian Financial Statements Database (RFSD), and the Unified State Register of Legal Entities (EGRUL) records on ownership and governance. We distinguish four modes of discontinuation: reorganization, probable bankruptcy, removal from the register, and other forms of liquidation. Cox proportional hazards models yield two principal findings. First, the apparent survival advantage of small and mediumsized firms relative to micro-enterprises vanishes — and indeed reverses — once financial performance and ownership structure are controlled for, indicating that what is commonly attributed to size in fact reflects specific organizational characteristics. Second, the four exit scenarios are driven by substantively different factors: bankruptcy is primarily associated with financial performance (ROA), whereas reorganization is linked to affiliation with a corporate group. The effect of the limited liability company (OOO) legal form likewise changes sign once corporate governance variables are included in the specification.