Does it pay off to use GenAI in the Russian labor market?

The rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has intensified discussions about how new technologies transform labor markets. For the first time, GenAI is impacting positions and tasks that until recently could only be performed by humans. Laboratory experiments suggest GenAI can generate significant productivity gains, especially among less qualified employees, which may translate into labor market returns. However, little is known about the individual wage returns to GenAI use. This paper for the first time estimates the impact of AI use on wages in the Russian labor market. The analysis is based on RLMS—HSE panel survey data from 2023—2024. We estimate a baseline Mincer-type wage equation with a broad set of control characteristics for the occupied job. To account for non-random selection into AI use arising from observed job heterogeneity, we employ the propensity score matching (PSM) method. To account for unobserved heterogeneity, we estimate a panel regression with fixed effects. Data show that despite the rapid advancement of GenAI, only 11% of employed individuals in Russia have used such tools. The wage returns from using GenAI vary depending on the model specification, the worker’s occupational group, and the frequency of GenAI use. On average, the wage return is 13.4% for the entire sample and 21.2% for highly qualified specialists. Controlling for the wages received by the worker in 2022 significantly reduces the return, confirming that the positive effect of using GenAI is predetermined by higher wage levels in jobs with high applicability of this technology. Fixedeffects models indicate a return only in the case of regular GenAI use, ranging from 17.2% on average for the sample to 41.8% for highly qualified specialists.