Financial fragility of Russians: The magnitude and trajectories of transition

The paper aims to assess the magnitude of financial fragility of Russians defined as the inability to cope with possible unexpected financial difficulties caused by a significant decrease in income or by large unforeseen expenses. The methodology includes three main indicators: (1) a broad definition — lack of liquid savings or the presence(s) of over-indebtedness; (2) a narrow definition — lack of liquid savings combined with a low subjective assessment of one’s financial situation or the presence(s) of over-indebtedness; (3) an assessment of confidence in their households’ ability to access a large sum of money to cover unexpected expenses in the next month. The database used is the results of seven waves of the all-Russian survey “Economic behavior of households”, covering the Russian population aged 18 and older and implemented at the HSE University from June 2023 to October—November 2025. The sample size for each wave was at least 6,000 people. Using the broad definition, the share of financially unstable households was 56.4%—65.0%, using the narrow definition — 20.5%—23.3%, and subjective assessment — 46.6%—48.5%. Analysis of the panel component revealed that 43.8% of respondents (by the broad definition) and 7.1% (by the narrow definition) were constantly in a state of financial fragility. The transition from financial fragility to resilience was most often associated with spending savings, and the exit from it was associated with exiting a state of over-indebtedness.