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Estimating the fiscal-monetary gap using Russian data

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  • N. A. Dankov

Abstract

Under sanctions, implementing effective economic policy and mitigating associated costs is particularly important. In particular, the interaction between fiscal and monetary authorities is reflected in the concept of the fiscal r-star (fiscal real interest rate) and the fiscal-monetary gap, as described in a study by experts at the International Monetary Fund. The purpose of this study is to adapt this concept to Russian data and analyze the results. Various statistical analysis and economic-mathematical modeling methods were used. The relevance of this research topic stems from the recent trend toward increasing domestic borrowing under the current tight monetary policy. This divergence could negatively impact both the sustainability of public debt and the achievement of the inflation target. In 2024-2025, a significant increase in the long-term real neutral rate (monetary r-star) to 8-9% was observed, leading to the development of a high (over 5%) and prolonged fiscal-monetary gap.

Suggested Citation

  • N. A. Dankov, 2026. "Estimating the fiscal-monetary gap using Russian data," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 9.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2026:id:5749
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2026-9-53-74
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