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Business uncertainty analysis using LC-curves

Author

Listed:
  • F. T. Aleskerov

  • I. S. Lola

  • D. G. Asoskov

  • D. A. Zabelina

  • R. D. Nazarova

Abstract

The LC-curve method, a novel approach to time-series analysis, was applied to a composite Business Uncertainty Index (BUI) constructed from regular Rosstat business surveys. This approach made it possible to trace uncertainty trajectories across Russia’s major industries and sub-sectors using two index specifications: ex ante (expected) and ex post (realized). The empirical analysis for 2020—2024 demonstrates the high sensitivity of LC-curves to economic shocks and their relevance for identifying the stages of business activity across industries. Both crisis periods within the study horizon — 2020 and 2022 — were clearly captured by the curves, with the pandemic showing a more pronounced negative impact. The forecast dynamics suggest that industrial activity will enter a phase of slower growth in 2025. Particular attention is given to medium-highand high-technology industries, highlighting those that exhibit the greatest resilience and are likely to play a key role in the structural transformation of the Russian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • F. T. Aleskerov & I. S. Lola & D. G. Asoskov & D. A. Zabelina & R. D. Nazarova, 2025. "Business uncertainty analysis using LC-curves," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 11.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2025:id:5563
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2025-11-143-157
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