The trap of narratives: The impact of scientific hypotheses on the effectiveness of economic policy

The article presents some of the author’s reflections on the role played by economic narratives in the formation of economic policy in Russia in the first quarter of the 21st century. In the author’s opinion, by now Russian economic policy has found itself in the “trap of narratives” that have dominated the intellectual economic environment for at least 20 years. The author notes a shift in the semantics of scientific research, which is expressed in the gradual decline in the popularity of economic growth and increased attention to monetary factors of development, inflation and financial stability. At the same time, the article shows that the Bank of Russia assumed the role of the main macroeconomic ideologist and regulator, and the key rate became the most important instrument of its monetary policy. The author defines the focus of the regulator’s efforts on monetary instruments of economic policy and, above all, the interest rate as a “narrative trap”. The author presents his view on how and why this economy found itself in this trap, hoping that his conclusions will help in the search for new approaches to the management of complex economic processes in a difficult period of global economic transformation.