The effect of digital platforms on the development of the Russian economy: A mathematical model of regulatory effects and empirical verification

To the present, digital platforms, as an institution organizing economic activity (platform economy), represent a key driver of the modern economy in many countries. This institution can be understood as a mechanism that harnesses technological capabilities of an advanced digital economy. A fundamental characteristic of this form of economic organization is that it is a private institution. Its operation is based on the benefits that economic agents receive or expect to receive from its use. At the same time, digital platforms may abuse their market position, which necessitates the development of regulatory constraints. Moreover, the development of this phenomenon significantly outpaces its legal regulation. A principal challenge of existing regulation lies in the fact that it is largely developed in the absence of reliable assessments of the scale of the platform economy and without thorough analysis of the economic impact of different regulatory scenarios. So the costs of regulatory measures can exceed those of non-intervention, both for consumers and for the country. This article addresses the task of identifying the parameters of such an optimal regulatory framework, alongside evaluating the economic effects of digital platforms’ activities on Russia’s GDP under various regulatory scenarios. To this end, an agent-based model was employed, enabling the assessment of the impact of different regulatory scenarios without substitution effects — that is, without resource reallocation within the economy in response to regulation — across six scenarios. One of the key parameters for the baseline assessment is the contribution of digital platforms to Russia’s GDP, estimated at 5.5% in 2024. This estimate is derived from aggregated transaction data processed by the four largest Russian platforms in the goods and services sectors between 2021 and 2024, which account for approximately 80% of all digital platform activity. The modeling results indicate that even the implementation of a single stringent measure (such as strict quality control, rigorous discount regulation, or reclassification of employment status from self-employment) leads to an estimated GDP reduction of approximately 3.8 to 4.7 p.p. by 2028, absent substitution effects. Conversely, a balanced regulatory approach demonstrates the fastest convergence and a GDP growth impulse of 3.85 p.p. without substitution effects as early as in 2025.