Tax maneuver in the oil industry: Provisional results and risks for further implementation

The paper analyzes the consequences of the abolition of the export duty on oil and oil products as a necessary step to stimulate energy efficiency of Russia’s economy and eliminate underdevelopment provoked by a long-term subsidizing of inefficient oil refining sector in Russia. The calculation results have shown that even taking into account several deviations from the planned scenarios of changing the parameters of tax regulation of the oil industry in 2014— 2019, the tax maneuver brought over 3.5 trillion rubles (in 2019 — 148 billion rubles) to the state budget in 2014—2017, mainly due to an increase in the base mineral extraction tax rate, and contributed to an increase in the depth of oil refining from 72% to 85%. In addition, the article analyzes possible risks associated with the current plan for reforming the taxation of the industry until 2024 and proposes an alternative that could level some of them. A comparative analysis of the effects of the tax maneuver under the current reform plan and the alternative variant suggests that the latter will allow to achieve a greater total budgetary effect in four years, reduce the cost of subsidizing domestic oil refining, increase the efficiency of Russian vertically integrated oil companies, and reduce the growth rate of oil products prices in the retail market.