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Assessing regional large-scale transportation projects: a factor of indeterminacy

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  • E.B. Kibalov
  • A. A. Kin

Abstract

The paper analyzes the modern theoretical and applied problems concerning the assessment of the large-scale investment projects under conditions of indeterminacy. The authors consider the domestic and foreign assessment techniques and conclude that their deterministic character is a key shortcoming. Having analyzed the large-scale regional transportation projects such as the Baikal-Amur Railroad, the Euro Tunnel and the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Pipeline, the authors show what happens if the inadequate approaches to assessing the strategic and tactic risks are applied to evaluating the input-output costs. In authors’ opinion, the reasons of the failures observed in above mentioned projects are as follows - the basic money flow models and the financial assessment criteria applied to validate the projects proved to be primitive; or the calculations - too mathematized in prejudice of a content-rich multi criteria analysis; or there was no a comprehensive public expertise. The paper presents a “neosystem” approach based on the institutional analysis and the contemporary computer and expert technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • E.B. Kibalov & A. A. Kin, 2007. "Assessing regional large-scale transportation projects: a factor of indeterminacy," Journal "Region: Economics and Sociology", Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of Siberian Branch of RAS, vol. 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:regioe:2007-3_6
    Note: Theoretical Issues of Regional Economics
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Borisovna Bardal, 2018. "Reform with Unaccounted Uncertainty (Review of the Monograph: ‘The Reform of Rail Transport: Critical Analysis and the Problem of Estimating Efficiency’)," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 170-183.

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