Europäischer Tarifbericht des WSI – 2021/2022 : Tarifpolitik im Zeichen von Krise, Krieg und Inflation

Collective bargaining in Europe is currently confronted with a multitude of uncertainty factors: Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine since February 2022 is dampening prospects for a continuation of the economic recovery that began in 2021. Significant losses in purchasing power for employees and negative distributional effects of inflation are on the horizon for 2022. On the other hand, there are warnings of possible risks of a spiral of rising prices and wages. The collective bargaining parties are thus faced with an unusually complex situation. Against this background, this European Collective Bargaining Report looks at possible risks and potentials for collective bargaining policy. Calculating the distribution margin based on productivity development and the HICP and, alternatively, the GDP deflator as the price index of domestic value added suggests a negative distribution balance from the employees’ perspective. This implies that it is not wage development but profit inflation that drives prices up. To improve the governance capacity of wage policy in view of the regional and sectoral challenges of the crises, a strengthening of the institutional framework for collective bargaining at both European and national level could be promising.