An end to the lies and self-deception: Scenarios for the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina

This article takes a provocative look at the future of the state of Bosnia i Herzegovina. The author, who is a friend to Bosnia i Herzegovina, describes the sclerosis inhibiting the country’s decision-making structures and the problems this has created for a country which desperately needs fresh policy ideas. His starting point is to imagine the outcome of the secession of Republika Srpska that he expects and the implications that this will mean for rump BiH. Two scenarios are investigated: firstly, the establishment of a formal federation with EU member state Croatia, inspired by the likely reaction to any RS secession in western Herzegovina; and secondly an independent Bosnia populated by a Bosniak majority going it alone. Despite the evident problems, including an inept political elite, the author believes that an independent Bosnia would provide the opportunity for Bosniaks to address the current economic, political and social agony as well as to define an Islam of European shape in the course of developing a new discourse on Bosniak identity.