Real versus expected market value creation (based on Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG30 companies)

The purpose of this article is to assess the adequacy of excess market value added to equity as an external measure of company value creation in terms of meeting shareholders’ expectations. Panel research covered 30 WIG30 index companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2017–2024. Mathematical statistics tools, a density measure, and a taxonomic measure of similarity were used to evaluate the results. Three hypotheses were tested. First, the excess measure has been shown not to distort market information and to be suitable for assessing the effectiveness of value creation, taking into account shareholders’ expectations. Second, insufficient value creation has been demonstrated, which results in a negative assessment of value-based management, both in terms of its effectiveness and its efficiency. Third, the value creation profiles of companies are not similar in terms of rank position with respect to the strength of creation, its volatility, and its risk – both overall and broken down by activity. The value of this rare research is the objective way in which it assesses company value creation versus shareholder expectations and the application of its methodology in expectations-based management.