Análisis del comportamiento estadístico y aproximación fractal en la recaudación del impuesto sobre nóminas y asimilados en el estado de Quintana Roo

This paper analyzes the tax collection from payroll tax on staff and non-staff in the state of Quintana Roo from 2000 to 2010. Its main contribution is to identify the statistical revenue behavior using a fractal approach, establishing iterative patterns at both state and municipal level, for the entire analyzed series of 132 months as well as shorter time periods. It serves as a trigger for application in other locations and charges in order to explore some features of taxation. Two statistical criteria were used to determine normal or abnormal series of municipal tax collection during the study period, namely, the Empirical Rule criteria and parameters using Chebyshev’s theorem. As a contrast, the Jarque-Bera test was applied on residuals, concluding that the fiscal revenue from the state of Quintana Roo (municipal data) does not follow a normal distribution, which is why the fractal approach has been used. The results with data for tax collection by municipalities throughout Quintana Roo show the presence of a fractal behavior (repetitive and cyclic) in revenue, which can be interpreted as the presence of a consolidated tax base, thus justifying the conclusion that there is strength (the observed level of collection) in local public finances. The same conclusion is obtained, with different temporal cuts, when analyzing and detecting the presence of specific fractal revenue behavior observed in municipalities of Benito Juarez (Cozumel) and Othon P. Blanco from 2000 to 2010.