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Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate

Author

Listed:
  • Jesper Björklund

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    University of Bern)

  • Kristina Seftigen

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    University of Gothenburg)

  • Markus Stoffel

    (University of Geneva
    University of Geneva
    University of Geneva)

  • Marina V. Fonti

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    University of Bern)

  • Sven Kottlow

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL)

  • David C. Frank

    (University of Arizona)

  • Jan Esper

    (Johannes Gutenberg University
    Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences (CzechGlobe))

  • Patrick Fonti

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    University of Bern)

  • Hugues Goosse

    (Université Catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain))

  • Håkan Grudd

    (Abisko Scientific Research Station)

  • Björn E. Gunnarson

    (Stockholm University
    Stockholm University)

  • Daniel Nievergelt

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    University of Bern)

  • Elena Pellizzari

    (University of Padua)

  • Marco Carrer

    (University of Padua)

  • Georg von Arx

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    University of Bern)

Abstract

Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era1. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250 ce) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century2,3, in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales4. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections5. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesper Björklund & Kristina Seftigen & Markus Stoffel & Marina V. Fonti & Sven Kottlow & David C. Frank & Jan Esper & Patrick Fonti & Hugues Goosse & Håkan Grudd & Björn E. Gunnarson & Daniel Nieverge, 2023. "Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 620(7972), pages 97-103, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:620:y:2023:i:7972:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06176-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06176-4
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