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Deformation and seismicity decline before the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption

Author

Listed:
  • Freysteinn Sigmundsson

    (University of Iceland)

  • Michelle Parks

    (Icelandic Meteorological Office)

  • Andrew Hooper

    (University of Leeds)

  • Halldór Geirsson

    (University of Iceland)

  • Kristín S. Vogfjörd

    (Icelandic Meteorological Office)

  • Vincent Drouin

    (Icelandic Meteorological Office)

  • Benedikt G. Ófeigsson

    (Icelandic Meteorological Office)

  • Sigrún Hreinsdóttir

    (GNS Science)

  • Sigurlaug Hjaltadóttir

    (Icelandic Meteorological Office)

  • Kristín Jónsdóttir

    (Icelandic Meteorological Office)

  • Páll Einarsson

    (University of Iceland)

  • Sara Barsotti

    (Icelandic Meteorological Office)

  • Josef Horálek

    (Institute of Geophysics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague 4)

  • Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir

    (Iceland GeoSurvey, ÍSOR, Urðarhvarf 8)

Abstract

Increased rates of deformation and seismicity are well-established precursors to volcanic eruptions, and their interpretation forms the basis for eruption warnings worldwide. Rates of ground displacement and the number of earthquakes escalate before many eruptions1–3, as magma forces its way towards the surface. However, the pre-eruptive patterns of deformation and seismicity vary widely. Here we show how an eruption beginning on 19 March 2021 at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, was preceded by a period of tectonic stress release ending with a decline in deformation and seismicity over several days preceding the eruption onset. High rates of deformation and seismicity occurred from 24 February to mid-March in relation to gradual emplacement of an approximately 9-km-long magma-filled dyke, between the surface and 8 km depth (volume approximately 34 × 106 m3), as well as the triggering of strike-slip earthquakes up to magnitude MW 5.64. As stored tectonic stress was systematically released, there was less lateral migration of magma and a reduction in both the deformation rates and seismicity. Weaker crust near the surface may also have contributed to reduced seismicity, as the depth of active magma emplacement progressively shallowed. This demonstrates that the interaction between volcanoes and tectonic stress as well as crustal layering need to be fully considered when forecasting eruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Freysteinn Sigmundsson & Michelle Parks & Andrew Hooper & Halldór Geirsson & Kristín S. Vogfjörd & Vincent Drouin & Benedikt G. Ófeigsson & Sigrún Hreinsdóttir & Sigurlaug Hjaltadóttir & Kristín Jónsd, 2022. "Deformation and seismicity decline before the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption," Nature, Nature, vol. 609(7927), pages 523-528, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:609:y:2022:i:7927:d:10.1038_s41586-022-05083-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05083-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Scott & Melissa Pfeffer & Clive Oppenheimer & Enikö Bali & Oliver D. Lamb & Talfan Barnie & Andrew W. Woods & Rikey Kjartansdóttir & Andri Stefánsson, 2023. "Near-surface magma flow instability drives cyclic lava fountaining at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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