IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v596y2021i7872d10.1038_s41586-021-03737-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink

Author

Listed:
  • Paul J. Young

    (Lancaster University
    Lancaster University
    Lancaster University and the UK Centre of Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Anna B. Harper

    (University of Exeter
    University of Exeter)

  • Chris Huntingford

    (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Nigel D. Paul

    (Lancaster University
    Lancaster University)

  • Olaf Morgenstern

    (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research)

  • Paul A. Newman

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

  • Luke D. Oman

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

  • Sasha Madronich

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Rolando R. Garcia

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

The control of the production of ozone-depleting substances through the Montreal Protocol means that the stratospheric ozone layer is recovering1 and that consequent increases in harmful surface ultraviolet radiation are being avoided2,3. The Montreal Protocol has co-benefits for climate change mitigation, because ozone-depleting substances are potent greenhouse gases4–7. The avoided ultraviolet radiation and climate change also have co-benefits for plants and their capacity to store carbon through photosynthesis8, but this has not previously been investigated. Here, using a modelling framework that couples ozone depletion, climate change, damage to plants by ultraviolet radiation and the carbon cycle, we explore the benefits of avoided increases in ultraviolet radiation and changes in climate on the terrestrial biosphere and its capacity as a carbon sink. Considering a range of strengths for the effect of ultraviolet radiation on plant growth8–12, we estimate that there could have been 325–690 billion tonnes less carbon held in plants and soils by the end of this century (2080–2099) without the Montreal Protocol (as compared to climate projections with controls on ozone-depleting substances). This change could have resulted in an additional 115–235 parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which might have led to additional warming of global-mean surface temperature by 0.50–1.0 degrees. Our findings suggest that the Montreal Protocol may also be helping to mitigate climate change through avoided decreases in the land carbon sink.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul J. Young & Anna B. Harper & Chris Huntingford & Nigel D. Paul & Olaf Morgenstern & Paul A. Newman & Luke D. Oman & Sasha Madronich & Rolando R. Garcia, 2021. "The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink," Nature, Nature, vol. 596(7872), pages 384-388, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:596:y:2021:i:7872:d:10.1038_s41586-021-03737-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03737-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03737-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41586-021-03737-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:596:y:2021:i:7872:d:10.1038_s41586-021-03737-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.