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The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification

Author

Listed:
  • James A. Screen

    (School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia)

  • Ian Simmonds

    (School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia)

Abstract

Climate feedback Climate change does not occur uniformly around the world: instead, in a process called polar amplification, the Arctic warms more rapidly than the tropics or mid-latitudes. Recent work published in Nature suggested that upper-atmospheric transport processes accounted for much of the recent polar amplification, but this conclusion proved controversial. Using updated reanalysis data from the past two decades, James Screen and Ian Simmonds now show that reductions in sea ice cover and thickness, rather than upper atmosphere processes, are responsible for most of the recent polar amplification. These findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive ice–temperature feedbacks are at work in the Arctic, and suggest that rapid warming and sea ice melting are likely to continue in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Screen & Ian Simmonds, 2010. "The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7293), pages 1334-1337, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:464:y:2010:i:7293:d:10.1038_nature09051
    DOI: 10.1038/nature09051
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miao Fang & Xin Li & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen, 2022. "Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. D. M. Smith & R. Eade & M. B. Andrews & H. Ayres & A. Clark & S. Chripko & C. Deser & N. J. Dunstone & J. García-Serrano & G. Gastineau & L. S. Graff & S. C. Hardiman & B. He & L. Hermanson & T. Jung , 2022. "Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Chelsea L. Parker & Priscilla A. Mooney & Melinda A. Webster & Linette N. Boisvert, 2022. "The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Jennifer A. Francis & Stephen J. Vavrus & Judah Cohen, 2017. "Amplified Arctic warming and mid‐latitude weather: new perspectives on emerging connections," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(5), September.
    5. Yufei Zou & Philip J. Rasch & Hailong Wang & Zuowei Xie & Rudong Zhang, 2021. "Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Matto Mildenberger & Peter Howe & Erick Lachapelle & Leah Stokes & Jennifer Marlon & Timothy Gravelle, 2016. "The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    7. Clifford Chuwah & Twan Noije & Detlef Vuuren & Philippe Sager & Wilco Hazeleger, 2016. "Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Marika Holland & Jennifer Kay & James Malanik & Andrew Barrett, 2012. "The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 1005-1027, February.
    9. Nicholas R. Golledge, 2020. "Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    10. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Yao Ge & Aiguo Dai & Lin Wang & Ian Simmonds & Cunde Xiao & Lixin Wu & Yao Yao, 2023. "Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    12. Weiming Ma & Hailong Wang & Gang Chen & L. Ruby Leung & Jian Lu & Philip J. Rasch & Qiang Fu & Ben Kravitz & Yufei Zou & John J. Cassano & Wieslaw Maslowski, 2024. "The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Xiaoqing Liu & Matthew Huber & Gavin L. Foster & Andrew Dessler & Yi Ge Zhang, 2022. "Persistent high latitude amplification of the Pacific Ocean over the past 10 million years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.
    15. Andrew J. Newman & Andrew J. Monaghan & Martyn P. Clark & Kyoko Ikeda & Lulin Xue & Ethan D. Gutmann & Jeffrey R. Arnold, 2021. "Hydroclimatic changes in Alaska portrayed by a high-resolution regional climate simulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Hasan Sohail & Virpi Kollanus & Pekka Tiittanen & Alexandra Schneider & Timo Lanki, 2020. "Heat, Heatwaves and Cardiorespiratory Hospital Admissions in Helsinki, Finland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-11, October.
    17. Clifford Chuwah & Twan Noije & Detlef P. Vuuren & Philippe Sager & Wilco Hazeleger, 2016. "Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 1-14, January.
    18. Shelly Rayback & Gregory Henry & Andrea Lini, 2012. "Multiproxy reconstructions of climate for three sites in the Canadian High Arctic using Cassiope tetragona," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 593-619, October.
    19. Flavio Lehner & Clara Deser & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 363-375, February.
    20. Chuya Wang & Minghu Ding & Yuande Yang & Ting Wei & Tingfeng Dou, 2022. "Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, May.
    21. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    22. Fengqin Yan & Shuwen Zhang & Wenhui Kuang & Guoming Du & Jing Chen & Xingtu Liu & Lingxue Yu & Chaobin Yang, 2016. "Comparison of Cultivated Landscape Changes under Different Management Modes: A Case Study in Sanjiang Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    23. Mircea SAVEANU, 2015. "Major Issues In Bringing About Sustainability," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(1), pages 156-166, March.

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