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Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

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  • Max Tegmark

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Nick Bostrom

    (Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford)

Abstract

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule1. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Tegmark & Nick Bostrom, 2005. "Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7069), pages 754-754, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:438:y:2005:i:7069:d:10.1038_438754a
    DOI: 10.1038/438754a
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