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Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years

Author

Listed:
  • Dake Chen

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
    State Oceanic Administration)

  • Mark A. Cane

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Alexey Kaplan

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Stephen E. Zebiak

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Daji Huang

    (State Oceanic Administration)

Abstract

Forecasts of El Niño climate events are routinely provided and distributed, but the limits of El Niño predictability are still the subject of debate. Some recent studies suggest that the predictability is largely limited by the effects of high-frequency atmospheric ‘noise’1,2,3,4,5,6,7, whereas others emphasize limitations arising from the growth of initial errors in model simulations8,9,10. Here we present retrospective forecasts of the interannual climate fluctuations in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the period 1857 to 2003, using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. The model successfully predicts all prominent El Niño events within this period at lead times of up to two years. Our analysis suggests that the evolution of El Niño is controlled to a larger degree by self-sustaining internal dynamics than by stochastic forcing. Model-based prediction of El Niño therefore depends more on the initial conditions than on unpredictable atmospheric noise. We conclude that throughout the past century, El Niño has been more predictable than previously envisaged.

Suggested Citation

  • Dake Chen & Mark A. Cane & Alexey Kaplan & Stephen E. Zebiak & Daji Huang, 2004. "Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6984), pages 733-736, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:428:y:2004:i:6984:d:10.1038_nature02439
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02439
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander N Pisarchik & Olga N Pochepen & Liudmila A Pisarchyk, 2012. "Increasing Blood Glucose Variability Is a Precursor of Sepsis and Mortality in Burned Patients," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-8, October.

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