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The unrealized potential of agroforestry for an emissions-intensive agricultural commodity

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Becker

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Jan D. Wegner

    (University of Zurich)

  • Evans Dawoe

    (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology)

  • Konrad Schindler

    (ETH Zurich)

  • William J. Thompson

    (University of Oxford)

  • Christian Bunn

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture)

  • Rachael D. Garrett

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Fabio Castro-Llanos

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture)

  • Simon P. Hart

    (The University of Queensland)

  • Wilma J. Blaser-Hart

    (The University of Queensland)

Abstract

Reconciling agricultural production with climate change mitigation is a formidable sustainability problem. Retaining trees in agricultural systems is one proposed solution, but the magnitude of the current and future potential benefit that trees contribute to climate change mitigation remains uncertain. Here we help to resolve these issues across a West African region that produces ~60% of the world’s cocoa, a crop contributing one of the highest carbon footprints of all foods. Using machine learning, we mapped shade-tree cover and carbon stocks across the region and found that the existing average shade-tree cover is low (~13%) and poorly aligned with climate threats. Yet, increasing shade-tree cover to a minimum of 30% could sequester an additional 307 MtCO2e, enough to offset ~167% of contemporary cocoa-related emissions in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—without reducing production. Our approach is transferable to other shade-grown crops and aligns with emerging carbon market and sustainability reporting frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Becker & Jan D. Wegner & Evans Dawoe & Konrad Schindler & William J. Thompson & Christian Bunn & Rachael D. Garrett & Fabio Castro-Llanos & Simon P. Hart & Wilma J. Blaser-Hart, 2025. "The unrealized potential of agroforestry for an emissions-intensive agricultural commodity," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 994-1003, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:8:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1038_s41893-025-01608-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01608-7
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