Integrated assessment of river development on downstream marine fisheries and ecosystems

Demands on freshwater for human use are increasing globally, but water resource development (WRD) has substantial downstream impacts on fisheries and ecosystems. Our study evaluates trade-offs between WRDs and downstream ecosystem functioning considering alternative dam and water extraction options, diverse eco-hydrological responses and catchment-to-coast connectivity. We used a data-driven ensemble modelling approach to quantify the impacts of alternative WRDs. WRD impacts varied from weakly positive to severely negative depending on species, scenario and cross-catchment synergies. Impacts on fishery catches and the broader ecosystem (including mangroves) increased with catchment developments and volume of water removed, or if flow reduced below a threshold level. We found complex, linked-catchment dependence of banana prawns on flow and floods. Economic risks for this important fishery more than doubled under some scenarios. Sawfish emerged as the most sensitive across a range of WRD scenarios. Our findings highlight the need to consider marine ecosystems and fisheries to inform sustainable management of the world’s remaining free-flowing rivers.