Redesigning electrification of China’s ammonia and methanol industry to balance decarbonization with power system security

Electrification represents a critical pathway to decarbonize the ammonia and methanol industries by reducing fossil fuel reliance. However, a greater understanding is needed of how the spatio-temporal mismatch between renewable generation and chemical load patterns may impact on power system emissions and security. Here we assess different electrification pathways across 22 Chinese provinces from 2020 to 2050. Using 2020 data, we show that reliance on grid electricity offsets CO2 reductions by increasing power system emissions, raising national emissions by 1%. Integrating co-located renewables without self-balancing flexibility exacerbates power system security risks, potentially increasing balancing requirements by 9%. To address this challenge, we propose the ‘Green Flexible Chemical Electrification’ pathway, transitioning from requirements for stringent co-located renewables to rigid temporal self flexibility. By 2030, Green Flexible Chemical Electrification demonstrates cost competitiveness nationwide, with green ammonia potentially generating 2 billion RMB in profit. Additionally, redesigning electricity pricing to incentivize chemical-side demand management further enhances power–chemical synergies.