Closing the gap between palaeontological and neontological speciation and extinction rate estimates

Measuring the pace at which speciation and extinction occur is fundamental to understanding the origin and evolution of biodiversity. Both the fossil record and molecular phylogenies of living species can provide independent estimates of speciation and extinction rates, but often produce strikingly divergent results. Despite its implications, the theoretical reasons for this discrepancy remain unknown. Here, we reveal a conceptual and methodological basis able to reconcile palaeontological and molecular evidence: discrepancies are driven by different implicit assumptions about the processes of speciation and species evolution in palaeontological and neontological analyses. We present the “birth-death chronospecies” model that clarifies the definition of speciation and extinction processes allowing for a coherent joint analysis of fossil and phylogenetic data. Using simulations and empirical analyses we demonstrate not only that this model explains much of the apparent incongruence between fossils and phylogenies, but that differences in rate estimates are actually informative about the prevalence of different speciation modes.