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Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Alcalde

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Stephanie Flude

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Mark Wilkinson

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Gareth Johnson

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Katriona Edlmann

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Clare E. Bond

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Vivian Scott

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Stuart M. V. Gilfillan

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Xènia Ogaya

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

  • R. Stuart Haszeldine

    (University of Edinburgh)

Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO2 retention, and of surface CO2 leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0008% per year, with over 98% of the injected CO2 retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO2 storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78% will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO2 can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO2 in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Alcalde & Stephanie Flude & Mark Wilkinson & Gareth Johnson & Katriona Edlmann & Clare E. Bond & Vivian Scott & Stuart M. V. Gilfillan & Xènia Ogaya & R. Stuart Haszeldine, 2018. "Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-04423-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04423-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Mouli-Castillo, Julien & Heinemann, Niklas & Edlmann, Katriona, 2021. "Mapping geological hydrogen storage capacity and regional heating demands: An applied UK case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    2. Callas, Catherine & Saltzer, Sarah D. & Steve Davis, J. & Hashemi, Sam S. & Kovscek, Anthony R. & Okoroafor, Esuru R. & Wen, Gege & Zoback, Mark D. & Benson, Sally M., 2022. "Criteria and workflow for selecting depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for carbon storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    3. Gilmore, Nicholas & Koskinen, Ilpo & van Gennip, Domenique & Paget, Greta & Burr, Patrick A. & Obbard, Edward G. & Daiyan, Rahman & Sproul, Alistair & Kay, Merlinde & Lennon, Alison & Konstantinou, Ge, 2022. "Clean energy futures: An Australian based foresight study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    4. Zhang, Rongda & Wei, Jing & Zhao, Xiaoli & Liu, Yang, 2022. "Economic and environmental benefits of the integration between carbon sequestration and underground gas storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    5. Ghanbari, Saeed & Mackay, Eric J. & Heinemann, Niklas & Alcalde, Juan & James, Alan & Allen, Michael J., 2020. "Impact of CO2 mixing with trapped hydrocarbons on CO2 storage capacity and security: A case study from the Captain aquifer (North Sea)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    6. Sun, Xiaolong & Alcalde, Juan & Bakhtbidar, Mahdi & Elío, Javier & Vilarrasa, Víctor & Canal, Jacobo & Ballesteros, Julio & Heinemann, Niklas & Haszeldine, Stuart & Cavanagh, Andrew & Vega-Maza, David, 2021. "Hubs and clusters approach to unlock the development of carbon capture and storage – Case study in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    7. Ulrich Wolfgang Weber & Niko Kampman & Anja Sundal, 2021. "Techno-Economic Aspects of Noble Gases as Monitoring Tracers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Chai, Rukuan & Liu, Yuetian & Wang, Jingru & Liu, Qianjun & Rui, Zhenhua, 2022. "CO2 utilization and sequestration in Reservoir: Effects and mechanisms of CO2 electrochemical reduction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    9. Ajay Gambhir & Shivika Mittal & Robin D. Lamboll & Neil Grant & Dan Bernie & Laila Gohar & Adam Hawkes & Alexandre Köberle & Joeri Rogelj & Jason A. Lowe, 2023. "Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Kenton A. Rod & Kirk J. Cantrell & Tamas Varga & Anil K. Battu & Christopher F. Brown, 2021. "Sealing of fractures in a representative CO2 reservoir caprock by migration of fines," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 483-492, June.
    11. Zhang, Zhien & Pan, Shu-Yuan & Li, Hao & Cai, Jianchao & Olabi, Abdul Ghani & Anthony, Edward John & Manovic, Vasilije, 2020. "Recent advances in carbon dioxide utilization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Haoyu Dou & Xuelin Dong & Zhiyin Duan & Yinji Ma & Deli Gao, 2020. "Cement Integrity Loss due to Interfacial Debonding and Radial Cracking during CO 2 Injection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-18, September.
    13. Manuel Wifling, 2020. "Financial precautions, carbon dioxide leakage, and the European Directive 2009/31/EC on carbon capture and storage (CCS)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 787-806, November.
    14. Jing, Jing & Yang, Yanlin & Tang, Zhonghua, 2021. "Assessing the influence of injection temperature on CO2 storage efficiency and capacity in the sloping formation with fault," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    15. Mark E. Capron & Jim R. Stewart & Antoine de Ramon N’Yeurt & Michael D. Chambers & Jang K. Kim & Charles Yarish & Anthony T. Jones & Reginald B. Blaylock & Scott C. James & Rae Fuhrman & Martin T. She, 2020. "Restoring Pre-Industrial CO 2 Levels While Achieving Sustainable Development Goals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-30, September.
    16. Halliday, Cameron & Hatton, T. Alan, 2020. "The potential of molten metal oxide sorbents for carbon capture at high temperature: Conceptual design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    17. Bong Jae Lee & Jeong Il Lee & Soo Young Yun & Cheol-Soo Lim & Young-Kwon Park, 2020. "Economic Evaluation of Carbon Capture and Utilization Applying the Technology of Mineral Carbonation at Coal-Fired Power Plant," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-14, July.
    18. Masoud Ahmadinia & Seyed M. Shariatipour, 2021. "A study on the impact of storage boundary and caprock morphology on carbon sequestration in saline aquifers," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 183-205, February.
    19. Connelly, D.P. & Bull, J.M. & Flohr, A. & Schaap, A. & Koopmans, D. & Blackford, J.C. & White, P.R. & James, R.H. & Pearce, C. & Lichtschlag, A. & Achterberg, E.P. & de Beer, D. & Roche, B. & Li, J. &, 2022. "Assuring the integrity of offshore carbon dioxide storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    20. Vo Thanh, Hung & Lee, Kang-Kun, 2022. "Application of machine learning to predict CO2 trapping performance in deep saline aquifers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    21. Ouyang, Mingwei & Cao, Yan, 2023. "Utilizations of reaction exothermic heat to compensate the cost of the permanent CO2 sequestration through the geological mineral CO2 carbonation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    22. Rissman, Jeffrey & Bataille, Chris & Masanet, Eric & Aden, Nate & Morrow, William R. & Zhou, Nan & Elliott, Neal & Dell, Rebecca & Heeren, Niko & Huckestein, Brigitta & Cresko, Joe & Miller, Sabbie A., 2020. "Technologies and policies to decarbonize global industry: Review and assessment of mitigation drivers through 2070," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

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