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Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years

Author

Listed:
  • Dominik Paprotny

    (Delft University of Technology
    European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Antonia Sebastian

    (Delft University of Technology
    Rice University)

  • Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Sebastiaan N. Jonkman

    (Delft University of Technology)

Abstract

Adverse consequences of floods change in time and are influenced by both natural and socio-economic trends and interactions. In Europe, previous studies of historical flood losses corrected for demographic and economic growth (‘normalized’) have been limited in temporal and spatial extent, leading to an incomplete representation of trends in losses over time. Here we utilize a gridded reconstruction of flood exposure in 37 European countries and a new database of damaging floods since 1870. Our results indicate that, after correcting for changes in flood exposure, there has been an increase in annually inundated area and number of persons affected since 1870, contrasted by a substantial decrease in flood fatalities. For more recent decades we also found a considerable decline in financial losses per year. We estimate, however, that there is large underreporting of smaller floods beyond most recent years, and show that underreporting has a substantial impact on observed trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominik Paprotny & Antonia Sebastian & Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, 2018. "Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-04253-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaojie Wang & Junqiang Xia & Boliang Dong & Meirong Zhou & Shanshan Deng, 2021. "Spatiotemporal distribution of flood disasters in Asia and influencing factors in 1980–2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2721-2738, September.
    2. Thomas Thaler, 2021. "Just retreat—how different countries deal with it: examples from Austria and England," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 412-419, September.
    3. Ioannis Kougkoulos & Myriam Merad & Simon J. Cook & Ioannis Andredakis, 2021. "Floods in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and lessons for French flood risk governance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1959-1980, November.
    4. Kalfin & Sukono & Sudradjat Supian & Mustafa Mamat, 2022. "Insurance as an Alternative for Sustainable Economic Recovery after Natural Disasters: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Paprotny, Dominik & Kreibich, Heidi & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo & Castellarin, Attilio & Carisi3, Francesca & Schröter, Kai, 2020. "Exposure and vulnerability estimation for modelling flood losses to commercial assets in Europe," Earth Arxiv r6dfg, Center for Open Science.
    6. Óscar Ferreira & Sunna Kupfer & Susana Costas, 2021. "Implications of sea-level rise for overwash enhancement at South Portugal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2221-2239, December.
    7. Vasilis Bellos & Ino Papageorgaki & Ioannis Kourtis & Harris Vangelis & Ioannis Kalogiros & George Tsakiris, 2020. "Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 711-726, April.
    8. Tomáš Hanák & Martin Tuscher & Oto Přibyl, 2020. "Hybrid Genetic Algorithm-Based Approach for Estimating Flood Losses on Structures of Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Vorlaufer, Tobias & Steimanis, Ivo, 2023. "Solidarity under heterogenous adaptation costs: Experimental evidence on coping after climate hazards," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Bojana Horvat & Nino Krvavica, 2023. "Disaggregation of the Copernicus Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and Population Density Data to Fit Mesoscale Flood Risk Assessment Requirements in Partially Urbanized Catchments in Croatia," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, November.
    11. Marina T. Mendoza & Reimund Schwarze, 2019. "Sequential Disaster Forensics: A Case Study on Direct and Socio-Economic Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Francesca Ciampa & Samaneh Seifollahi-Aghmiuni & Zahra Kalantari & Carla Sofia Santos Ferreira, 2021. "Flood Mitigation in Mediterranean Coastal Regions: Problems, Solutions, and Stakeholder Involvement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    13. Rubén Giménez-García & Víctor Ruiz-Álvarez & Ramón García-Marín, 2022. "Chronicle of a forecast flood: exposure and vulnerability on the south-east coast of Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 521-552, October.
    14. Quntao Yang & Shuliang Zhang & Qiang Dai & Rui Yao, 2020. "Assessment of Community Vulnerability to Different Types of Urban Floods: A Case for Lishui City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Octavio Rojas & María Mardones & Carolina Martínez & Luis Flores & Katia Sáez & Alberto Araneda, 2018. "Flooding in Central Chile: Implications of Tides and Sea Level Increase in the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, November.
    16. Agnij Sur & K.S. Kavi Kumar & Anubhab Pattanayak, 2022. "Adaptation to Rainfall Extremes: Role of Dams in India," Working Papers 2022-223, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    17. Florian Misch & Martin Rey, 2022. "The case for a loan-based euro area stability fund," Discussion Papers 20, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 May 2022.
    18. Michalis Diakakis & Katerina Papagiannaki, 2021. "Characteristics of Indoor Flood Fatalities: Evidence from Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-15, August.
    19. Mikša, Katažyna & Kalinauskas, Marius & Inácio, Miguel & Pereira, Paulo, 2021. "Implementation of the European Union Floods Directive—Requirements and national transposition and practical application: Lithuanian case-study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Igor Leščešen & Mojca Šraj & Biljana Basarin & Dragoslav Pavić & Minučer Mesaroš & Manfred Mudelsee, 2022. "Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of the Sava River in South-Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    21. Martínez-García, Víctor & Martínez-Paz, José M. & Alcon, Francisco, 2022. "The economic value of flood risk regulation by agroecosystems at semiarid areas," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    22. Felix Julian Othmer & Dennis Becker & Laura Miriam Schulte & Stefan Greiving, 2020. "A Methodological Approach to Municipal Pluvial Flood Risk Assessment Based on a Small City Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    23. Convertino, Matteo & Annis, Antonio & Nardi, Fernando, 2019. "Information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model for Optimal Flood Management," Earth Arxiv k5aut, Center for Open Science.

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