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Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations

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Listed:
  • Paul S. Kench

    (School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag)

  • Murray R. Ford

    (School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag)

  • Susan D. Owen

    (School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag)

Abstract

Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations. Inundation and erosion are expected to render islands uninhabitable over the next century, forcing human migration. Here we present analysis of shoreline change in all 101 islands in the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu. Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr−1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul S. Kench & Murray R. Ford & Susan D. Owen, 2018. "Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-02954-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02954-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Kees Geest & Maxine Burkett & Juno Fitzpatrick & Mark Stege & Brittany Wheeler, 2020. "Climate change, ecosystem services and migration in the Marshall Islands: are they related?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 109-127, July.
    2. G. Mary Diviya Suganya & B. Deepika & R. Madhumitha & S. Rajakumari & R. Purvaja & R. Ramesh, 2019. "Planform Island change assessment for inhabited Lakshadweep Islands," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(2), pages 735-750, September.
    3. G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2020. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    4. Shafi Noor Islam & Sandra Reinstädtler & Md Sumon Reza & Shammya Afroze & Abul Kalam Azad, 2023. "Climate change versus livelihoods, heritage and ecosystems in small Island states of the Pacific: a case study on Tuvalu," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 7669-7712, August.
    5. Jamero, Ma. Laurice & Esteban, Miguel & Chadwick, Christopher & Onuki, Motoharu, 2019. "Rethinking the Limits of Climate Change Adaptation," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 584, Asian Development Bank.
    6. Ilan Kelman & Justyna Orlowska & Himani Upadhyay & Robert Stojanov & Christian Webersik & Andrea C. Simonelli & David Procházka & Daniel Němec, 2019. "Does climate change influence people’s migration decisions in Maldives?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 285-299, March.

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